In How close to saturation is the smartphone I highlighted that the US is not nearly saturated at 68.8% penetration at the end of March. Since the US is not the highest penetrated, one may wonder whether other “developed” countries are far further along. There is no data on all the countries in the world … Continue reading “How close is the UK to smartphone saturation?”
The latest comScore US smartphone survey showing three months’ ending October data has been released and there were no surprises. Smartphone penetration grew to 62.5% representing 149.2 million users. I made a slight adjustment to the predictive logistic function parameters (p1 = 93, p2 = 22.5). The correlation between predictive and actual logistic function (P/(1-P)) … Continue reading “Updated US Smartphone Saturation Forecast”
Thanks to Symbian, the EU5 countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) had an earlier start in the conversion of phone usage from non-smart to smart devices. According to published comScore data, in July 2010 the EU5 were at 26.6% penetration of smartphones and the US was at 22.8%1. However, with the aid of … Continue reading “When will the European Union Five reach smartphone saturation?”
The latest comScore data places penetration at about 61%, up over 10 percentage points from the same time last year. The 50% last year is itself up nearly 14 percentage points from the same time in 2011. This progress in the diffusion of smartphones is shown the following graph: I set the time frame for … Continue reading “When will the US reach smartphone saturation?”
The US is not the market where penetration is highest. However, it is the largest market where we have reliable penetration data (from at least two sources) and the one where penetration is near the top of the range. The graph showing the US ranked against others as of a year ago is here. The … Continue reading “How close to saturation is the smartphone?”
50% penetration for smartphones in the US turned out to be fairly predictable. I tracked my predictions based on comScore data and the results are shown in the following graph. I began making predictions in May 2010 and updated the estimate every month since. As the chart shows, the prediction converged to early September 2012 … Continue reading “When will smartphones reach saturation?”
According to comScore, as of end of May, the ratio of consumer phone users in the US (aged more than 13) who use smartphones as their primary phone has reached 47%. The question is whether this is reaching saturation. My guess has been that saturation will be at levels well above 80%. The data shows … Continue reading “At 50% penetration the US smartphone market is not showing signs of saturation”
Nielsen has already noted that more than half of US consumers have smartphones. comScore’s data seems to point to that threshold being crossed sometime this year. If that point is crossed then it would mark the smartphone as one of the most rapidly adopted consumer technologies of all time. I plotted the time it took … Continue reading “When will smartphones reach saturation in the US?”
As previously noted, the US smartphone market has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth. The measured data (via comScore, in green below) follows a predictive logistic function (thin blue whose formula is discussed here). The other notable market observation is how closely the iPhone follows the same pattern as the market. The red line representing … Continue reading “How many Americans will be using an iPhone when the US smartphone market saturates?”
In yesterday’s post forecasting smartphone penetration I neglected to mention the exact subset of the US population being sampled. The analysis is based on comScore’s sampling which covers only those devices which are the “primary phone” for users over 13 years old and not provided by an employer. In other words, the population being sampled … Continue reading “How many smartphone users will there be in the US?”
