Author: Horace Dediu

WWDC Context: A quarter million apps approved

Six months ago IDC predicted 300k apps before end of 2010.

Here is a quick mid-year check: As of today there are around 215k available, with 250k likely approved by the end of WWDC.

These are the stats from three app store tracking spiders:

Apple’s WWDC banners proclaim 200k apps which was the last public count stated at the April iPhone OS 4.0 launch event.

Looks like IDC’s forecast will not be a stretch especially as the new iPhone will create a new wave of apps.

Also noteworthy is the nearly 10k iPad apps available in less than 3 months.  The original iPhone reached 10k apps in about six months.

Ballmer thinks the iPad is a PC; analysts who measure market shares don't.

8:50 am: Walt circles back, notes that Ballmer uses the term PC to include things that most people don’t think of as PCs. Is the iPad a PC?

Ballmer: Of course it is. What do you do on it? Answer email….A guy tried to take notes on it at a meeting I was at yesterday–that was interesting [chuckles from the audience]. He suggests that the positioning of devices like the iPad as something beyond the PC is just a marketing tactic.

via Steve Ballmer and Ray Ozzie at D8 Conference: on Competitors, Tablets, Future of Computing and much more | Microsoft | ithinkdifferent.

If only the analysts would add the 2+ million iPads shipped this quarter to Apple’s Mac units and declare that Apple’s market share doubled(*).  If only things were so simple.

At least on this I agree with Ballmer.

(*) The iPad is already outselling the Mac on a weekly run-rate.

iPhone takes share from RIM, Android takes share from Windows Mobile

Data tracking firm Nielsen Co.’s quarterly survey found that, in the U.S. the iPhone added two percentage points for a 28% market share in the three months ended in late March compared to the previous quarter. RIM still had the biggest market share at 35% but it lost two percentage points in that period.

Phones that run on Google Inc.’s Android operating system also gained two percentage points for a market share of 9% over the same period, while Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Mobile phones lost two percentage points for a 19% share.

via Appetite for IPhone Continues Undiminished – Digits – WSJ.

Although Android is often considered in competition with the iPhone, as we’ve shown in the past, the two are seldom competing for the same purchase decision.  From a distribution and business model point of view, the platforms are mostly non-overlapping.

The installed base data above shows that in their respective areas of competition: in the US, with the current operator channel, the iPhone is taking share from a similarly positioned platform (RIM) while Android is taking share from a similarly licensed alternative (Windows Mobile).

Ballmer on leadership changes aka voluntary retirements

“And I think i’ve been quite public about the fact that I chose to make a set of leadership changes in the team of people building and executing on our Windows Phone software.

“We had to do a little cleanup, change things around,” Ballmer said

via AppleInsider | Microsoft CEO hopes to reenter phone market, disputes PC shift.

“I chose to make leadership changes” and Robbie Bach the ultimate leader of Windows Phone “retiring”.  Did he jump or was he pushed?

Deagol: iPad web usage 20x iPod

So my prediction from six and a half weeks ago came through, with a couple of days to spare. iPad has surpassed iPod in web traffic. It took only two months and two million units, compared to almost 3 years and about 40 million iPod touches out there. That means iPads use the web roughly 20 times as much as iPod touches.

Also, not only has iPad more than doubled Android 2.1’s share, it’s now past all Android OS’s combined. .

via Deagol’s AAPL Model: iPad web usage passes iPod.

Good call.

Microsoft OEM VP on tablets: wait and see, could flop like netbooks

Giving Android the green light:

In addition, for the time being, Microsoft will not offer new Windows versions to support non-Intel architectures that are targeting tablet PC development, noted Guggenheimer.

The formation of a market segment for a new product category necessitates the existence of a supporting ecosystem made up of a complete industry supply chain, Guggenheimer emphasized. He cited the netbook market as an example; units were selling well initially and people believed that the market was going to be established as a new segment, but recently market growth has slowed down considerably, Guggenheimer pointed out.

via Whether tablet PCs can become market segment is still uncertain, says Microsoft VP.

I remember when Microsoft used to be paranoid.

20% of American subs have a smartphone with 1.2 million switching every month

According to The State of Mobile Apps | Nielsen Wire 21% of American wireless subscribers have a smartphone at Q4 2009, up from 19% in the previous quarter and significantly higher than the 14% at the end of 2008.

A previous Comscore survey showed US smartphone penetration at about 17%.

If we were to blend the data to a rough estimate, I would say it’s fair to assume 20% penetration.  The total number of subscribers in the US is about 234 million, which makes for 46.8 million smartphone users.

This still leaves 80% or 187.2 million non-smartphone users.

The share gain of 6%/yr. means another 1.2 million Americans are switching into a smartphone every month.  Another decade and the non-smartphone market will simply be gone.

With AT&T lowering the barriers of entry with data plan pricing and with other operators matching, don’t be surprised if it happens sooner.

As saturation begins around 50% to 60% penetration, price competition will intensify.  That takes the tipping point to about 2013.

Time Inc. could not be more excited

We see the next flood of new portable color touchscreens headed to market in the next 18 months as a game changer. It will be the opportunity that content producers like Time Inc. have been waiting for to reestablish value for quality digital content. It’s argued that it will be impossible to get consumers to pay for digital content since they’ve grown up getting everything for free. We disagree.

The tablet restores something we lost when we went to the Web. Our readers can once again literally touch our content while still having that familiar “lean back” experience of a magazine. In real time, they can link in instead of linking out to the rest of the story on Time.com.

The advertising can be so good it can become content itself. It can help you evaluate products. And when you’ve made your decision it can help to find you a place to buy them.

As more and more hardware manufacturers come in with these e-readers there is just huge demand for our product, for our video product, for my print product—it’ll all be combined. We think very healthy business models will be coming out of it. We’ll be making more money in those businesses than we’ve been making with our traditional dot-coms.

People are paying. We know people will pay for it … it’s a business model that is just really very delicious.

via Time Inc. Is Really, Really Excited About Tablets « The Biz Blog – Forbes.com.

Using the politically correct terms “tablet” or “touchscreen” or “e-readers” to describe the iPad like it was PC for music companies to talk about “MP3 players” when referring to iPods.

The Walled Garden is only as good as its gardener

I’m assuming we’re supposed to compare this approach to the freer alternatives such as community gardens and city parks. Ignoring for a moment the fact that these gardens are also regulated by serious restrictions on what one can and can’t do, it still puzzles me that the “walled garden” is presented as an obviously undesirable structure.

Aren’t the benefits of a closed, carefully managed garden clearly visible? The experience is controlled, so it tells a story – one which may not emerge from a democratic, anything-goes process or do you think this sort of slow and deliberate story would emerge in a busy American city in the year 2010? Charging for admission means that the place can be maintained, improved, and marketed. There are downsides to this, of course — maybe the management makes boneheaded decisions now and then. Maybe you think that vine maple would look better a little to the left — maybe you’re even right.

via The Walled Garden – Neven Mrgans tumbl.

A walled garden is great as long as the gardener is an enlightened genius.  I can tell you that when operators tried to make walled internets for their handsets, the result was an atrocity.

It’s understandable why people recoil at the thought of a walled garden.  But they shouldn’t.  If it’s no good you can go somewhere else.

Why Apple is on top today: the top 10 technology decisions

As Apple overtook Microsoft in market cap and as Steve Jobs reminisced about some recent history, I thought I’d reflect on some of the decisions that brought Apple to the pinnacle of technology companies.  The criteria I used to select these is how improbable and hence courageous they were when taken and how much impact they have had on the industry. Since the impact of these decisions could not be felt for a long time, the courage required to act early is all the more remarkable.

At the time they were made, none of these decisions did anything to move the stock price or cause great rejoicing. In fact, in many cases the decisions were ridiculed by those who should know better. Yet each one became a massive pillar of the foundation of Apple as it is today.  As you read through, think of the decisions that Apple competitors made or did not make in the same time frame.

Top 10 Apple technology decisions of the 2000 decade in reverse order: Continue reading “Why Apple is on top today: the top 10 technology decisions”