Katzenberg gets it

Dreamworks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg sang Jobs praises for several minutes, before declaring: “His greatest accomplishment is going to be this tablet.”

“As Steve said last night, there is something indescribable about the connection,” Katzenberg said. “Our children are going to get educated on it. They are going to play on it. They are going to consume more media on that than any other (device).”

“The laptop is yesterday’s news,” he said.

via At D, all hail the iPad | Beyond Binary – CNET News.

Greatest accomplishment…to date.

PCs are going to be like trucks

Best Steve Jobs quote from D8

7:06 p.m. PDT: Is tablet eventually going to replace laptop, Walt asks.

7:07 p.m. PDT: Jobs: “When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that’s what you needed on the farms.” Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular.

7:07 p.m. PDT: “PCs are going to be like trucks”

7:07 p.m. PDT: “They are still going to be around…they are going to be one out of x people.”

via: CNET

iPad is a product competing along a new basis; that of convenience and simplicity.  The PC vendors are motivated to serve their most demanding customers who expect loads of features and the highest specs. Most people who write about technology for a living will also side with the “truck drivers” because they “know more about transportation than anyone else”.

When you hear someone say that the iPad is just a toy or that it’s only for consumption and not creation, think about that professional truck driver’s bitterness at seeing cheap consumer vehicles cluttering up the roads, doing nothing but serving the unproductive whims of an uneducated population.

People are using apps way more than they are using search

Steve Jobs On iAds:

[It’s to] make developers more money…. People are using apps way more than they are using search. So if you want to make developers more money, you’ve got to get the ads into apps. But the mobile ads we’ve got today rip you out of the app…” Apple has figured out a better way.

This is pretty much the same as his statement on the iPhone 4.0 launch: asymco | On a mobile device Search hasn’t happened.

Wall St. discounts Apple's growth potential

Apple, with its $50 a share in cash, could earn as much as $17 to $20 a share in 2011, which means the stock is trading at a cheap 12.5 times next year’s earnings. Cramer said even if Apple hits his $300 target, the stock will still be cheap trading at just 15 times earnings.

“That’s less than almost every single growth stock I follow,” Cramer said, “and even less than the S&P 500’s multiple.”

via Jim Cramer Predicts Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will hit $300 a Share | Madd Money.

S&P forecasts the S&P 500 average P/E for 6/30/2010 at 22.57.

Readers of this blog may recall that I noticed Apple’s discounted valuation several times.

Nokia bullish on N900: sales substantially above expectations

A spokesman for Nokia, the world’s top cellphone maker, declined to comment on the sales number, saying the company was pleased with sales, but an executive was more bullish.

“Sales have substantially exceeded expectations,” Alberto Torres, head of Nokia’s solutions business, told the Open Mobile Summit trade conference in London this week.

via Nokia top model N900 sales below 100,000: Gartner | Reuters.

If Alberto Torres’ expectation for a flagship product is substantially less than 100k for a launch quarter, I wonder what disappoints him.

Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

After 12 million units sold in 28 60 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

Looks like at least half two thirds of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

See: Analysts predict iPad sales

IDC: I Dream of Claim Chowder

A few eyebrows were raised when Microsoft presented a slide at a French event where they made the claim that 30 Million Windows Phone devices would be sold by the end of 2011.  Given that the first Windows Phone won’t ship until October 2010 at the earliest, or, according to Mr. Ballmer, “by Christmas,” count me among the skeptics.

However, the claim was later retracted by Microsoft stating that they mis-quoted IDC, the original source for the forecast.  The correction was perhaps meant to put an end to the credibility crisis.

However, the actual forecast from IDC was even more preposterous. Continue reading “IDC: I Dream of Claim Chowder”

Welcome to the new asymco.com

Asymco is now in its third home and fourth design.  After starting in February 2010 with iWeb hosted at me.com, moving a month later to WordPress.com, I’ve finally moved the blog to a proper hosting site (dreamhost) and merged the blog with asymco.com.

One reason I had to leave WordPress.com was that they required payment for the removal of ads from my pages.  Although I understand their business model, I felt that it’s more important that what users see is my content and only my content.

At the time of moving, the blog had 306 posts, 272 comments, 64 tags, 9 categories and nearly 40k hits.

Hopefully the transition will be painless to those who came to the old site.

At 135 devices, the Android army marches on but what happened to the Windows Mobile legions?

The number of Android devices is rising steadily; it’s already up to 135.  Android devotees should rightly rejoice.  However, Android is not the first mobile platform with an open licensing strategy. A quick visit to pdadb.net lets us count the number of devices that shipped for every mobile platform in history.  We can also see the current market shares as listed by Gartner for these platforms.

The numbers of SKUs (stock keeping units) that have shipped historically vs. the market shares of the mobile phones running those platforms are (see Footnote below for some caveats):

The same data in a scatter plot: Continue reading “At 135 devices, the Android army marches on but what happened to the Windows Mobile legions?”