Author: Horace Dediu

Analysts predict iPad sales

After 1 million units sold in 28 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech   7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs           6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley     6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.              5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets   5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray           3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital           2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital         2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna           2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank       2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch               1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams       1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel             1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer             1.1

Looks like at least half of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).

Thanks to MfH for the tip.

iPad outsells iPhone

Apple today announced that it sold its one millionth iPad on Friday, just 28 days after its introduction on April 3. iPad users have already downloaded over 12 million apps from the App Store and over 1.5 million ebooks from the new iBookstore.

via Apple Sells One Million iPads.

On March 14 I wrote:

I will be surprised if the number of units sold in Apple’s CQ2 doesn’t exceed 1 million. This will probably mean better performance with a new platform than Nokia, Google, Sony Ericsson or HTC and perhaps better than the iPhone.

On March 9 I wrote:
In either case, iPad will sell better than the iPhone out of the gate.
The iPhone sold 1 million within 74 days.  The iPad sold 1 million units in less than half the time the iPhone did.

iPad will be big in healthcare

Over the next 18 months more than 1,800 [iPads] will be distributed to the hospital’s physicians allowing them to move away from paper-based notes, prescriptions and medical documents.

via Ottawa Hospital boss urges staff to ‘be bold … go big’.

Perhaps this goes without saying, but iPad will be big in healthcare.

Mark Bernstein: Platform Control

And somewhere in the recovery was a moment when Apple stood on a hill, before the setting sun, and shook its fist at the heavens and vowed that it would never be hungry (and powerless) again Never again would another company decide whether the Macintosh lived or died. So, Apple supplanted Metrowerks and wrote its own IDE. It wrote Keynote to inform Microsoft and the world that, should Microsoft discontinue Office for Mac, Apple would be prepared to replace it without delay. It wrote Safari to ensure that it would have a Web browser option, come what may.

This is the key to modern Apple. It’s a big company, and it’s now wildly successful. It assumes that it can write a successful software product in any niche. It’s very talented and very confident. But always, at the back of its collective mind, is fear — the fear of depending on the kindness and competence of others, and the fearful memory of the days when it was cowering in a dark closet, waiting for the blow to fall, while the trade press laughed and jeered.

Mark Bernstein: Platform Control.

Espoo, we have a problem.

Poor quality of Nokia software is source of astonishment for market analysts.

Helsingin Sanomat – International Edition – Business & Finance — Analysts: Nokia has wasted 3 years trying to come up with challenger to iPhone.

A queue is forming to get on board the clue train but, instead of getting in line, Finland seems to be sitting and watching incredulously how the line grows.

The Finnish newspaper article continues:

The media often takes a blindly uncritical view of all Apple’s doings, such that the positive attention paid to the company’s products is in no way proportionate to the weight of the products themselves.

A good example is Apple’s iPad tablet, the commercial success of which is still a large question-mark. This has nevertheless not prevented journalists over the Atlantic from writing profusely and ecstatically about the newcomer.

If Nokia keep believing this their competitiveness problem will surely not go away.
Additional thoughts on the likely response process from Nokia here.

200k apps (IV)

The avalanche of media outlets offering their content for Apple’s mobile devices demonstrates that Flash is no longer necessary to watch video or consume any kind of web content. And the 200,000 apps on Apple’s App Store proves that Flash isn’t necessary for tens of thousands of developers to create graphically rich applications, including games.

via Thoughts on Flash.

How about that! On February 2nd from your correspondent: 200k Apps by May 1.

Including apps that have been removed, the total apps approved is about a quarter million. 200k available apps crossed over on March 23.

RIM now ranked 4th, Apple 6th in phone market shares

First quarter market share ranking of top mobile phone vendors according to Strategy Analytics:

  1. Nokia, 107.8 million
  2. Samsung, 64.3
  3. LG, 27.1
  4. RIM, 10.6
  5. Sony Ericsson, 10.5
  6. Apple 8.75
  7. Motorola, 8.5

These numbers are shipments or sell-in, which may differ from sell-through or end-user purchases.

RIM breaks into top 5 in surging phone market | Reuters.

HP on Windows Mobile/Phone

Will webOS replace Windows on all of your smartphones?

Microsoft will continue and will always be a huge strategic partner for Hewlett-Packard. Our focus is to create choice for customers around those products and services that will allow them to connect to the information they need as quickly and as safely as they can.

via HP Gets Its Hands on Palm – BusinessWeek.

Sounds like a definite non-answer.  My bet is that they have not decided but that when they will decide it will be to show Microsoft the door.

Smartphone shipments grow 50 percent in Q1

Strategy Analytics said 54 million smartphones were shipped in the quarter, comprising 18 percent of the total handset market.

  • Apple’s share reached 16.4%, up from 10.6% a year ago while maintaining an ASP of €445.
  • Nokia raised its share to 40% from 38.2% on an ASP of €155.
  • RIM slipped to 19.7% from 20.3%.

via Smartphone Q1 shipments up 50 pct y/y -survey | Reuters.

Apple overtakes Motorola in phone market share

However, it has lost its position as the largest U.S. maker of phones to Apple Inc. Motorola sold a total of 8.5 million phones in the quarter, while Apple sold 8.8 million iPhones. Four years ago, when the Razr was still popular, Motorola sold 46.1 million phones in the first quarter.

via Motorola posts profit, strong sales; stock jumps – Yahoo! Finance.

A year ago, Motorola sold 14.7 million phones in the fourth quarter (a y/y drop in unit volume of 42%). The drop in phone revenue in the same period was 9 percent.