Horace Dediu
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Android vs. Google
When I heard about Android being positioned against the iPhone, I thought about how that decision must have been justified internally at Google. I wondered how Andy Rubin added up the benefits of his product vs. the risks of losing whatever value Google derived from the iPhone. On the benefits side, Android’s original business plan Continue reading
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Calibrating iPhone Growth
I calibrate my growth rates on the assumption that Apple will overtake the combined share of the two money-losing handset vendors. Sony Ericsson and Motorola are the weakest competitors in terms of portfolio and competence with software. Their sales, units and profits shares for 2008/2009 are shown in the graph above (source: Morgan Stanley). Therefore, Continue reading
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One Million Americans Switching to Smartphones Every Month
Comscore revealed their latest survey resultsfor the US mobile subscriber market. From the latest data and the data previously released in October we can put together a few insights. The number of smartphone users increased by 3.2 million, growing at over 1 million new users per month. Apple and Android added about 1 million users Continue reading
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60% of Top 100 Brands on the App Store
I wanted to check how popular the App Store was for the world’s brands. As a quick experiment, I went through the first 100 names in the Forbes 1000 list (ranked by Revenues) and found that 37 had some app store presence. I then went through the next 100 and found that 61 out of Continue reading
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Estimating iPhone’s Nosebleed Gross Margins
Apple’s latest re-statement of financial statements eliminated subscription accounting for the iPhone not just for the past quarter but for the entire history of the product, back to mid-2007. This allows a more precise estimate of the gross margin of the product and the results are eye-watering. Apple does not reveal the margin for any Continue reading
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Nexus One: 80k units in first month -Flurry
Google sold about 80,000 Nexus One smart phones in their first month on the market, according research firm Flurry,Dow Jones Newswires reports. By contrast, Apple sold about 600,000 iPhones when it launched the device in 2007, the story notes; the Motorola Droid sold 525,000 in the first month, according to Flurry. Flurry estimates sales by Continue reading
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When to Sell
I would sell AAPL when hateful articles are no longer written. When the consensus that Apple is dominant is overwhelming then sell. When computing has de-facto shifted to mobile, then sell. When there are no more iKiller wannabes and when competitors no longer seek to “take on the upstart” then sell. As long as there Continue reading
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Yahoo Finance “Key Statistics” Are Wrong
Deagol, one of the most accurate forecasters of Apple’s financial performance rages against the failure of mainstream databases to correctly report financial data. Having witnessed incompetent analysis and lapses of basic fact checking from paid and certified financial professionals, I’m not surprised. As the theme of this blog goes, there is an asymmetry of information Continue reading
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They want the thing in the movies
Mike Monteiro writes: I went back for a second helping of Avatar this Sunday. There’s a scene early on in the movie where one of the scientists walks across the lab carrying the “mobile computer slab of the future.” We’ve seen one of these in almost every sci-fi movie of the last 50 years. It Continue reading
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iPhone will come to Verizon when Verizon rolls out a network compatible with the iPhone
Obviously, not everyone is on the cluetrain… Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Chaplin : “Our analysis suggests that Apple will eventually sell the device at all carriers; however, there is a much greater probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another 12-18 months than investors realize,” he writes. “We think this has profound impacts for Apple, the Continue reading