Financial data and analysis
On the company’s earnings call, Apple COO Tim Cook says the company is “shocked” by initial demand for the iPad. He also added, “I’m personally addicted to mine and couldn’t live without it.”
via Apple Blows Out Earnings Thanks To Huge iPhone Sales – Yahoo! Finance.
Speaking of iPad, the iPad is almost impossible to obtain in Boston area. By reservation only.
There are no iPads in any of the four Apple stores I called in the Boston area for three days now. If any units arrive they sell out in minutes. This is still with a limit of 2 per person and no 3G units available. Also, bulk purchases by education are being delayed.
Now I have no data for the rest of the country, but there have been notes from analysts saying that stock-outs are occurring sporadically. My experience tells me that it’s a pretty serious retail shortage. On the other hand, the on-line store is still delivering with one week shipment times.
It could be that the international trade or “mules” are taking large shipments overseas. To discourage this, perhaps Apple is giving preference to mail order over in-store purchase. The phenomenon is similar to what was observed with the first version of iPhone. Apple was limiting sales to 5 per person and eventually banned cash purchases.
[UPDATE] Still sold out 6 days later.
My prediction is that sometime next year Apple will announce the 100 millionth iPhone OS device sold, making the iPhone the fastest selling platform in history. The iPhone will have been on the market for three years.
One Hundred Million « Asymco. (five months ago)
Did anybody else see the line below the “1 Billion” header in the iPhone 4.0 Launch Event? The segment was about the 1 Billion impressions that iAd will be able to target. Interestingly this is one of only two forward looking estimates that Apple has ever made on the iPhone.
The 100 million threshold in units is important in several contexts.
First, on April 9th, 2007 Apple announced that the 100 millionth iPod had been sold, making the iPod the fastest selling music player in history. The first iPod was sold five and a half years earlier, in November 2001. The iPhone will reach this in 3 years.
Second, no other platform comes close. On November 3, 2003, Microsoft announced that it intends to sell 100 million Windows Mobile devices by year 2007. Two years after that goal, in 2009, Microsoft sold 15 million units, down from 16.5 million in 2008. It has not reached half the targeted installed base.
Although there could be more than 100 million Symbian devices in use, they are not all running the same software, so they do not offer a targetable installed base.
The results all but confirmed a sudden slowdown in netbook sales in the early part of the year and suggested the business may actually be on the decline. Intel didn’t directly explain the shift, but an ongoing recovery from the recession and a more mature market are likely to give more buying power and greater interest in faster notebooks, especially following the addition of mobile Core i3, i5 and i7 chips.
The trend away from netbooks is likely to continue as Intel raised its profit margin estimates for the whole year from a range of 58 to 64 percent earlier to between 62 and 66 cents.
Source: Electronista
A tip of the hat to John Gruber for compiling this list:
Daring Fireball: Apple Netbook Claim Chowder.
14 October 2008, Doug Aamoth at CrunchGear: “Five Reasons Why an Apple Netbook Is a No-Brainer”:
When asked today about the possibility of an Apple netbook, Steve Jobs said something to the effect of, “The market is just getting started — we’ll see how it goes.”
Huh? Here’s how the netbook market’s going, Steve: pretty much every major computer company has a netbook but you. Apple’s a prime candidate for a netbook, too.
20 January 2009, Brian Caulfield at Forbes: “Apple’s Real Problem: Netbooks:”
The real problem is how Apple’s portfolio of expensive gear — particularly notebooks — will fare as the recession starts to bite.
21 January 2009, Brian X. Chen at Wired Gadget Lab: “Apple Still Oblivious to Netbook Opportunity”.
18 March 2009, Shane O’Neill at PC World: “Recession Breathes Life Into Windows PCs as Apple Gasps for Air”:
At this point, I’m going to stop asking when Apple will acknowledge these dark days we live in because I think the answer is never. Maybe Apple should just be a bull market company. When times are lean, it should pack up like a traveling carnival or disappear like a baseball team in winter and not come back until everybody’s rich and happy again.
24 March 2009, Scott Moritz at TheStreet.com: “Apple’s Netbook Foray Will Flop”
Nonetheless, design hubris and slumping sales will cause Apple to tap a hot segment of computer market.
19 August 2009, Charles Moore at The Apple Blog: “Lack of Netbook, Price Hurting Apple in This Year’s Back-to-School Market”.
Deagol estimates 12,594 2.77
via Deagol’s AAPL Model: Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates.
In the spirit of Deagol and Turley Muller here are my estimates for the quarter:
3mo ending Mar-2010 Rev($M) EPS($)
——————- ——- ——
Apple guidance 11,200 2.12
Analysts consensus 11,960 2.44
asymco estimates 12,357 2.60
asymco Revenue breakdown:
Mac 3,918 ( 3.01M @ $1,300)
iPhone 4,500 ( 7.50M @ $ 600)
iPod 1,652 (11.00M @ $ 150)
Music 1,206
Software 689
Periph 393
——– ——
Total 12,357
At the event, CEO Steve Jobs noted that iPhone sales to date now tops 50 million units. Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt points out in a research note that as of the end of December, sales to date were 41.8 million. Ergo, the company sold at least 8.2 million in the March quarter, he concludes.
Source: Barrons
How can you count on these guys for forecasts about the future when they can’t get the past right? Total iPhones sold as announced by Apple: 42.484 million. A more reasonable estimate is here.
A bit less than one year ago, on April 23rd 2009, Apple reported 1 billion apps downloaded.
158 days later, on September 28th 2009, Apple reported 2 billion apps downloaded.
99 days later, on January 5th 2010, Apple reported 3 billion apps downloaded.
93 days later, on April 8th 2010, Apple reported 4 billion apps downloaded.
The download rate for the past 93 days was 10.7 million apps per day.
Given 85 million iPhones and iPod touches sold, the 4 billion app downloads amount to 47 per device. (Although that number is likely to be considerably higher due to many iPhones/iPods having gone out of use–an attach rate of well over 50 seems like a good estimate).
“We’ve sold over 50m iPhones to date, and if you add the touch, over 85m iPhones and iPod touches. If you’re a dev, that’s a plum market to go after.”
iPods now make up 41% of the iPhone ecosystem. This number has been creeping up.
Today Steve Jobs stated that 50 million iPhones were sold to date. According to SEC filings, since about 42.5 million sold as of end of 2009, it follows that about 7.5 million units shipped in the first quarter.
That number represents a 98% y/y increase in units.
“Conventional notebook PCs are ‘motherboard-centric,’ with all the other functions in the system—-such as the display, the keyboard and audio—-peripheral to the central microprocessor and the main printed circuit board at the core,” Andrew Rassweiler, teardown services manager for iSuppli, said Wednesday. “With the iPad, this is reversed.”
User interface components total 44% of the total bill of materials (BOM). The display is 26% and the touch assembly is 12%. Memory is 11% (16G variant), processor is 10%, and case a 4%. Batteries make up a large part of the rest (37%).
