Category: Market

Market data & competition.

What job is a Blackberry hired to do?

When mobile platforms are discussed, the conversation frequently turns to market share battles between Android and iOS. I’ve pointed out before that the problem with this reasoning is that market share in a market that’s growing at 90% is a false measure of performance.

The more important measure is how much of the non-smartphone market is being taken by smartphones and how fast the whole phone market is growing. Competition with non-consumption is very different from platform warfare.

But even when discussing the rivalry between current platforms, the Blackberry and Symbian are often overlooked as contenders. Windows Phone and iOS come in and out of discussion only on the basis of press releases. The truth is however that Symbian, Windows, Blackberry are not going to disappear anytime soon.  Why is that? Continue reading “What job is a Blackberry hired to do?”

20% vs 33% for "Others": Why are Gartner and IDC so far apart on mobile phone market estimates

The latest mobile phone estimates from Gartner made a startling claim that “Others” vendors increased share from 16% a year ago to 33%. Doubling share in a year is possible if you’re at 1% share but to double from a base of 16% is sounding improbable. They allege that the “Others” now sell more phones than Nokia. And Others don’t even include ZTE and Huawei, the prototypical low end challengers.

They emphasize this point in their discussion and state that the incumbent vendors are being pressured by these low end entrants. They go on to explain that the same set of vendors will probably use Android to enter the smartphone space.

To illustrate, the growth of individual companies is shown here (all phones). Continue reading “20% vs 33% for "Others": Why are Gartner and IDC so far apart on mobile phone market estimates”

Competing with non-consumption: Can Apple sell 100M iPhones next year?

[Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair] also contends that Apple’s production forecasts suggest the company thinks it can sell 100 million iPhones next year. “While a staggering number any way you look at it, our checks reflect full calendar 2010 builds in the 48-50 million unit range,” he writes. “While this number can change and adjust downward or upward  based on demand, we believe it is incredibly bullish that Apple feels it is possible that they could see nearly 100% year over year growth for iPhone in 2011 as this would mean that exiting 2011, Apple would have approximately 10% share in the global handset market.”

via Apple Can Sell 100M iPhones, 48M iPads in 2011, Analyst Says – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com.

Apple is, in my estimate, likely to sell at least 47 million iPhones in calendar 2010. (16 million in the current quarter, or 85% y/y growth).

The 100 million in 2011 estimate assumes 100% growth on average. Is it really “staggering” to forecast another year of triple digit growth? Continue reading “Competing with non-consumption: Can Apple sell 100M iPhones next year?”

Nokia's moderate-intelligence-phone performance

A complete market overview will follow when all the top tier vendors report the last quarter, but in the mean-time here are some data that are available:

Smartphone volumes for Nokia, Apple and RIM: Continue reading “Nokia's moderate-intelligence-phone performance”

Visualizing iPad vs Mac

The iPad outsold the Mac after two quarters in the market. It’s important to understand the effect the iPad is having on PCs. Data is trickling in that potential notebook buyers are “postponing” purchases due to the iPad. The netbook market has witnessed a significant slowing which has trickled down to the performance of everybody in the value chain, from Microsoft, to PC vendors, Intel, AMD and retailers.

So naturally we need to ask how it has affected the Mac.

The following chart shows how the iPad has outsold the Mac the past quarter. Continue reading “Visualizing iPad vs Mac”

Analysts predict iPad sales (part IV)

So far Apple has sold 7.458 million iPads and there is still a quarter remaining in the calendar year. The highest forecast immediately after the launch of the product was 7 million.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first 12 months of sales).

All analysts polled grossly underestimated the iPad. My impression is that competitors are still in denial. Continue reading “Analysts predict iPad sales (part IV)”

iPad vs. iPhone: why we got the iPad forecasts wrong

The iPad was announced to a loud chorus of disapproval and disdain. It’s easy to forget the overwhelming scorn and insult poured on the product for months before and after sales start. Analyst forecasts were comical. At this time it looks like all 12 month iPad unit forecasts will have missed by more than 100% (mine included).

As data on iPad performance was published for the first quarter’s sales, the mood swung from ridicule to ridiculous. Continue reading “iPad vs. iPhone: why we got the iPad forecasts wrong”

Sony Ericsson vs. RIM

“Our third consecutive quarter of profitable results illustrates that Sony Ericsson’s overall performance is stabilizing. Our strategy to focus on the smartphone segment is succeeding and smartphones now comprise more than 50% of our total sales,” Chief Executive Bert Nordberg said in a statement.

via Sony Ericsson swings to third-quarter profit – MarketWatch.

As the world welcomes Sony Ericsson to the smartphone market, we compare its unit volumes to another vendor that’s been selling only smartphones.

Sony Ericsson took the Android life jacket and it saved them, for now. But think for a moment where they used to be. A very similar story to Motorola.

CDMA iPad and the 150 million iOS devices next year

The Verizon distribution for iPad is an unexpected development. Coupled with distribution through AT&T stores, and rapidly expanding retail points of purchase, it seems that the iPad is destined to be the most widely distributed product Apple sells. The iPod never reached operator points of purchase and the Mac is orders of magnitude more constrained.

What seems to be happening is that Apple is pulling out all the stops and going for unrestricted iPad distribution. This may also foreshadow unrestricted iPhone distribution next year. It may also portend a CDMA iPad (or at least an LTE version) next year.

If it happens all estimates for next year need to be revised sharply. I had been expecting 100% growth for the iPad and 50% growth for the iPhone. These might need to be increased to 150% and 100%.

The consequence could be that total iOS devices sold could top 150 million for calendar 2011.