Market data & competition.
Customers’ biggest complaint about the iPhone 4: They can’t buy one, because it’s sold out.
via AppleInsider | Jobs calls Bloomberg story ‘total bull,’ says NYT ‘making things up’.
This has also been my complaint and it’s a far more serious complaint than any of those that attract media attention.
The fact that the number of people planning to buy is more than 70 percent of those who have already bought is a good sign for a device that sells for at least $499, said Britt Beemer, America’s Research Group founder. “That shows incredible demand for the product.”
via Still plenty of demand for iPad: survey | Reuters.
And this says nothing of demand outside the US, which, in my opinion, is even higher.
The contrast between this “incredible demand” and the “incredible derision” with which the product was met by the technology media speaks volumes of the disconnect between the market’s most demanding and most vocal customers and the silent vast majority.
See also: asymco:ipad
Market share is an existential threat to Symbian, it imperils the very existence of the platform. And the main reason Symbian is losing share is the user experience which isn’t competitive with Apple or Android. Based on the early previews I’ve seen Symbian 3 looks to have polished a few of the rough edges, but doesn’t fix the problem. So if the weak UI is threatening Symbian’s very survival the Foundation ought to be seriously worried, right? Wrong. I just looked on the Foundation web site and blogs at the roadmap and features for future releases. What I see is too much effort on stuff that really doesn’t matter. For example: Audio policy packages for Symbian, WIFi direct, support for an “open cloud manifesto”, an accredited Symbian developer program for China, better multitasking, multiple personalised home screens, HDMI connection to external TVs, better web runtime support, better internal architecture and so on.
Forget elegant architecture, forget better multitasking, forget Chinese developers, forget release schedules that don’t deliver S4 devices with a new user experience until 2011. None of these matter. People will never use the features if they don’t buy the phone. The situation is now serious enough that any developer who isn’t working on something directly related to a new UI is wasting their time. The S4 UI is a “bet the platform” project. For any organisation to be in a situation where its survival depends on one project is very dangerous, especially when their track record in the area isn’t outstanding. I think the Foundation needs a contingency plan in case the planned S4 interface isn’t radical enough or good enough. Maybe redirect some developers and start a couple of skunkworks projects to create new competing UIs for S4, or perhaps announce a competition with a $1M prize for a new Symbian UI to encourage some radical ideas.
I think the Symbian foundation is just re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and ignoring the Android iceberg ahead.
According to a recent ComScore survey, 49.1 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in May, up 8.1 percent from the corresponding February period. This is equivalent to 20.1 percent of total users. A previous survey from December showed 17 percent penetration.
In a previous article I pointed out that more than 1 million Americans are switching to smart phones every month. This number is now 1.2 million per month. The number of non-smart devices in use is 185 million and at current rates smartphone users will outnumber non-smart users in 4.5 years. With a very small acceleration I reckon less than 4, or by 2014.
(posting from my iPad)
Verizon slashes Microsoft Kin phone prices • The Register.
My guess is that Microsoft’s business model for the Kin was always to share revenues for Kin data plans. Trouble is that users won’t pay high monthly fees for data without a significantly more flexible device. Thus even making the Kin free won’t get a large user base.
With the recent iPhone 4 launch the media spotlight has faded on the iPad. However, the iPad is still missing in action at many (most? all?) Apple stores. I called four stores in the Boston area and they are only available by reservation. The waiting time varies but I’ve been told to expect one week wait at one store and an indeterminate wait at the others.
The online store shows 7 to 10 business days waiting time for all models.
Apple Sells Three Million iPads in 80 Days – Yahoo! Finance.
After 1 2 3 million units sold in 28 60 80 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:
First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)
Looks like at least half two thirds three quarters of these guys have already blown it.
For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year). It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.
See: Analysts predict iPad sales Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)
As a footnote to the unlocked iPhone 4 story, it’s worth noting that the average Apple store pricing for UK and France is around $824 (assuming equal blending between the two countries and between the two models). Excluding corresponding VAT leads to an approximate ASP of $695.
Operators probably get a slightly better price so my estimate for the iPhone 4 ASP of $600 seems reasonable with potential upside based on product and regional mix.
The most impressive number for us is the change in units shipped. For example, leader Nokia held 66.6% of the marketshare in Q1 of ’09, and 45.2% in Q2 for a 7% change in units shipped. Meanwhile, Apple held 10.2% in Q1 ’09 and 40.3% in Q1, ’10 for a 532.1% change in units shipped.
I’m picking up all kinds of signals that Apple is about to let loose with a storm of operator distribution deals.
It all started with Tim Cook’s comment in the last conference call:
Over the past year we have moved a number of markets from exclusive to non-exclusive. In each case as we have done that we have seen our unit growth accelerate and our market share improve
Now we are hearing of unrestricted iPhone distribution in France and today the rumor of T-Mobile picking it up in the US (which I always thought was more logical than Verizon). There are other hints from the Nordic countries
Three to Carry iPhone 4 in UK | News | The Mac Observer observes that there will be five (!) UK carriers selling it.
In addition to the super-steep ramp of 88 countries launching in 3 months.
It looks like Tim pulled all the stops.
