Category: Market

Market data & competition.

App Store vs. Facebook as Platforms

Since the App Store launched in July 2008, 35,000 unique companies have released applications, which translates to 58 new companies launching apps each day. This appears to be the largest amassing of 3rd party developer support by any development platform in such a compressed timeframe. For example, comparing the number of applications created for the Facebook platform to the App Store over their respective first 9 months, Apple boasted 25,000 apps to Facebook’s 14,000. Comparing respective growth in apps after 14 months, Apple had widened its gap to 85,000 apps over Facebook’s 33,000. At the App Store’s 18 month mark, reached this January, the number of iPhone apps was reported to have exceeded 140,000 compared to 60,000 we estimate Facebook had reached over the same number of months. Apple now leads Facebook with over twice as many available applications. We believe the difference in growth rates can be attributed to the App Store providing better monetization possibilities for application developers than Facebook. Developers, like all rational companies, pursue markets where the path to revenue generation is clear.

link: Flurry Smartphone Industry Pulse, February 2010


iPad Sales Estimates: How did they stack up?


Deagol counts about 120k iPad units were pre-ordered on the first day. How do we judge this performance?

The problem will be in using some comparable as a measure of reference. This is a problem because first, there is no equivalent product in history, second, there are few similar products that are pre-ordered and sold without user samples being available, and third it’s being sold through a very limited channel (on-line Apple Store). Lastly, the number includes only delivered units vs. reservation for pick-up.

Nevertheless, the figure is intriguing. One class of comparable products might be new smartphone products from companies that were launching on new platforms.

One example is the Android G1–the first Android device. It sold 663k units in the launch quarter. Another is the Nokia 5800, Nokia’s first touch capable device. It sold 536k units in the first quarter (up to 1 million in the first 3 months). Sony Ericsson’s first Windows Mobile device was the X1. It sold 237k units in the first quarter of sales. The first Sense UI HTC device (the Diamond) sold about 1 million units. The RIM Storm, RIM’s first touch device sold 1.6 million units. Finally the iPhone which sold 1.1 million units in the first full quarter of sales (about 1.4 million if we include the weekend sales that fell outside the first quarter).

The iPad does seem to be doing rather well relative to these products. Again, their figures were for a full 90 days of sales and were sold through physical retail channels in a variety of geographic markets.

I will be surprised if the number of units sold in Apple’s CQ2 don’t exceed 1 million. (Apple will book all these sales only on delivery which means they won’t appear in CQ1 sales figures). This will probably mean better performance with a new platform than Nokia, Google, Sony Ericsson or HTC and perhaps better than the iPhone.

(data source: Canalys).


Korean Regulations Stifle Mobile Games Market

South Korea is considering banning access to the Android Marketplace to its residents if Google continues to offer game apps that are not approved by the country’s regulator

link: Korea may block Android Market due to game laws | Electronista

Currently, South Koreans have a choice of two Android-powered smartphones that have access to the Android Marketplace, and more are due for release this year. There are about 4,400 games on the Android Market available to South Koreans, with all of them needing to be rated.

Apple has gone around the South Korean laws by not offering any gaming apps at its App Store for iPhones and iPod touch devices. South Korean developers put up locally approved games under the entertainment category in the App Store, however. Many South Korean iPhone owners create a second account outside of South Korea that does grant them access to games on the App Store as well.


Ten Percent of Microsoft Employees use iPhone as Company Phone

Nearly 10,000 iPhone users were accessing the Microsoft employee email system last year, say two people who heard the estimates from senior Microsoft executives. That figure equals about 10% of the company’s global work force.

link: Microsoft Employees Love Gadgets, but iPhone Fans Lie Low – WSJ.com


Analyst: Apple To Build 5 Million iPads In First Half 2010

Apple (AAPL) is on track to build 5 million iPads in the first half of 2010, according to FBR Capital chip analyst Craig Berger.

link: Apple To Build 5 Million iPads In First Half 2010, Analyst Says – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com

5 million by June sounds a lot more likely than 2 million by October.

Until we get some real data, my target remains 5 million sold for calendar 2010, but I would not be in the least surprised if it was 10 million.

In either case, iPad will sell better than the iPhone out of the gate.


Selling Android Phones With Malware at No Extra Charge

Vodafone distributes Mariposa botnet | Panda Research Blog


Pedro Bustamante:

Interestingly enough, the Mariposa bot is not the only malware I found on the Vodafone HTC Magic phone. There’s also a Confiker and a Lineage password stealing malware. I wonder who’s doing QA at Vodafone and HTC these days?

In the comments, Bustamante writes:

Regardless, I don’t think this has to do with factory settings, but rather with poor QA process of refurbished phones.


Why HTC (Part II)

Starting in January, Apple launched a series of C-Level discussions with tier-1 handset makers to underscore its growing displeasure at seeing its iPhone-related IP infringed. The lawsuit filed against HTC thus appears to be Apple’s way of putting a public, lawyered-up exclamation point on a series of blunt conversations that have been occurring behind closed doors.

link: Apple talks tough to handset makers – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Brainstorm Tech

Top-tier handset makers continued to avoid implementing multi-touch, but Apple could safely assume that they were hanging back to gauge Apple’s response to Motorola and HTC. If there wasn’t one, the OEMs would likely read the silence as a green light, especially after Google also moved to enable multi-touch on its Nexus One phone.

Even before the lawsuit, handset makers were having second thoughts about Google, which with the Nexus One had become a direct competitor. Now their faith in Android as the easiest and cheapest way to counter the iPhone has been shaken, says Reiner.

Seems pretty close to what I wrote here:

Why HTC?

Therefore it’s entirely likely that HTC was singled out to disrupt the business logic of modular mobile software. HTC is the pioneer and the hub as the largest licensee for both WinMo/WinP and Android and the inspiration for hundreds of OEM/ODMs to make modular products.

… Other vendors looking at this licensing model might think harder about participating, and that may be the whole point.

Analyst Cuts Nexus One Estimates by 71%

We previously estimated that Google might sell 3.5 mn Nexus One units in 2010. Initial data-points were disappointing, possibly due to limited marketing and customer service challenges. Flurry estimated (based on mobile traffic) that Google sold 20,000 in the first week, and 80,000 in the first month, both annualizing to 1.0 mn. We forecast that Google sells 1.0 mn Nexus One units in FY2010, benefiting from US carriers other than T-Mobile, and non-US carriers such as Vodafone, promoting the device too, but suffering from limited marketing activity. We assume that Google rolls out a second Nexus handset, markets it more aggressively, and makes it available offline, and therefore forecast that Google sells 2 mn handsets per year in 2011 and future years.

link: Goldman: We Were Too Rosy on Google Smartphone Unit Sales – MarketBeat – WSJ

First they get excited over Palm then fawn over Nexus One. Then they take it all back. Give us a break.

Read my takes here:

Google the Shopkeeper
Nexus One: 80k units in first month -Flurry
Android vs. Google


Analyst: Palm at 10k Units a Week

Cusick says his checks find Palm is getting only about 1% share of handset sales at Verizon Wireless, or about 10,000 units a week, versus 400,000 units that were sold in to the company. At this rate, he says, there is “no prospect of Verizon follow-through” in the May quarter – and he sees weak sell-in at AT&T in the quarter as well. (AT&T has said plans to launch a Palm phone, but no timetable has been announced, I would add.) He sees Sprint launching other new smart phones soon, “which would reduce Palm’s share even further.”

link: Palm: Macquarie Downgrades; Cuts Target To $4, From $10 – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com

Stepping back into the wayback machine to read analyst commentary from 6 months prior to the launch of WebOS (June 27th, 2008):

In a report form Deutsche Bank’s (Sell rating). They noted that 38% of the shares were sold short, while 10 holders account for almost 70% of the shares outstanding.

In Deutsche Bank’s view, Palm’s future would be “entirely dependent on their new products, services and operating system,” all due next year. “If these turn out to be good, then the stock could do well,” he says. “If the new entries are not attractive, then Palm risks bankruptcy.”