YLE: Nokia's smartphone share crumbles in Finland

Roughly translated:

Nokia is rapidly losing share in the smartphone market in Finland. The iPhone is becoming a large part of the market.  Sales grew in the first quarter but a growing slice of revenues is going to Nokia’s competition.  iPhone share of the Finnish smartphone market has not been previously disclosed but Sonera Sales Director Juha Koivuniuemi reveals it to be more than 20 percent.

Nokian asema murenee huippupuhelimissa myös Suomessa | Talous ja politiikka | YLE Uutiset | yle.fi.

I should mention that I had previously estimated iPhone share at 17% in January.

Reminds me of another phenomenon: the iPhone in Japan.

Analysts predict iPad sales (part III)

Apple Sells Three Million iPads in 80 Days – Yahoo! Finance.

After 1 2 3 million units sold in 28 60 80 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

Looks like at least half two thirds three quarters of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

See: Analysts predict iPad sales Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

Apple considered less valuable than the average S&P 500 company [Updated]

Apple just reached a new all-time closing high.  It’s remarkable that so soon after a recession the stock is enjoying new highs.  The Dow would have to gain 40% to make the same claim.

So some may ask whether Apple’s stock is getting ahead of itself.  Perhaps it’s showing signs of “irrational exuberance”.

This is not the case.  In fact, the stock is showing signs of irrational despondency.  This is demonstrated with the following graph.

Continue reading “Apple considered less valuable than the average S&P 500 company [Updated]”

Why I think Apple wants everybody to have an iPhone

In recent entries I asked: Can the iPhone reach 10% of the world’s 3G subscribers? and  Can iPhone reach 20% of global smartphone market?

These were rhetorical questions designed to demonstrate that a growth rate of 50% (compounded) over three years was clearly possible through reduction to absurdity of alternative scenarios.

The question of iPhone as iPod vs. iPhone as Mac businesses is at the crux of any investment in Apple today and the key strategic question facing Apple and all its competitors.  Anyone holding or considering buying AAPL shares should answer this question for themselves.

To the top-down market share scenarios above I add the following, more direct, signals Apple has made regarding their iPhone-for-all strategy: Continue reading “Why I think Apple wants everybody to have an iPhone”

Analysts upgrading AAPL

Susquehanna Financial’s Jeff Fidacaro: To $335 from $325.

Kaufman Bros.’ Shaw Wu: To $340 from $320.

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster: To $348 from $340.

Caris and Co.’s Robert Cihra: To $325 from $310.

Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty: To $332 from $310.

International Strategy & Investment Group’s Abhey Lamba: initiate with $320.

Cowen’s Matthew Hoffman: initiate with $326.

At yesterday’s closing price Apple was trading at a 12-month trailing P/E multiple of 23 despite revenue growth that may exceed 50% and EPS growth that may exceed 70%.

Using the highest target of $348 price target as an example, it prices the shares at a P/E of less than 30 times the most recent 12-month earnings which does not take into account the contributions from the iPad. Continue reading “Analysts upgrading AAPL”

Mobile phone companies consolidate while the smartphone market expands

In Japan’s second cell-phone merger this month, Fujitsu and Toshiba said Thursday they will merge their handset operations … NEC, Casio Computer and Hitachi merged their phone units earlier this month.

via Fujitsu and Toshiba to Merge Cellphone Units – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.

Mergers usually happen in a mature industry when there is excess capacity and decreasing growth.  In the mobile phone market we’ve seen several companies disappear or merge over the past decade:

  • Ericsson
  • Sony
  • Alcatel
  • Siemens
  • Casio
  • NEC
  • Hitachi
  • Fujitsu
  • Toshiba
  • Palm
  • Handspring
  • Motorola tried but failed to get itself acquired.

But we’ve just seen forecasts where the smartphone market is growing and is expected to continue growing at 40%. Why is there consolidation in a growing market? Continue reading “Mobile phone companies consolidate while the smartphone market expands”

Nokia: Throwing in the towel

“We have long maintained that the company’s ponderous corporate culture would eventually find its footing, but with competitors attacking fiercely at both the low and high end, deterioration in its core European market, and a lengthening timeline for Symbian^3, which may not live up to expectations anyhow, shares will plunge well below recession lows,” he warns.

via Nokia: Charter’s Snyder, Long-Time Bull, Throws In The Towel – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com.

But at least Nokia management can take comfort in having a higher P/E ratio than Apple.

iPhone 4 ASP is $600

As a footnote to the unlocked iPhone 4 story, it’s worth noting that the average Apple store pricing for UK and France is around $824 (assuming equal blending between the two countries and between the two models).  Excluding corresponding VAT leads to an approximate ASP of $695.

Operators probably get a slightly better price so my estimate for the iPhone 4 ASP of $600 seems reasonable with potential upside based on product and regional mix.

Unlocked iPhone 4 priced at €600

Factory unlocked iPhone 4 Sold by Apple in UK, Canada & France!! | All on the iPhone, iPod touch & iPad.

Unlocked iPhones are being made available at UK, Canadian and French Apple stores for the equivalent of $740, £500 and €600.

This will go some way toward making the iPhone available to a larger population, especially in developing countries.

iPhone on top down under

The most impressive number for us is the change in units shipped. For example, leader Nokia held 66.6% of the marketshare in Q1 of ’09, and 45.2% in Q2 for a 7% change in units shipped. Meanwhile, Apple held 10.2% in Q1 ’09 and 40.3% in Q1, ’10 for a 532.1% change in units shipped.

Asymco

Asymmetric Competition

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