Is Apple Closing Off the iPhone to Rival Ad Networks?

“Notwithstanding anything else in this Agreement, Device Data may not be provided or disclosed to a third party without Apple’s prior written consent. Accordingly, the use of third party software in Your Application to collect and send Device Data to a third party for processing or analysis is expressly prohibited.”

via Is Apple Closing Off the iPhone to Rival Ad Networks? | Peter Kafka | MediaMemo | AllThingsD.

Not to worry, Eric. Android revenues will make up for AdMob’s price tag.

Oh wait

App download rate steady above 10 million per day

The App download rate increased to a record 10,753,000 per day during the last 90 days.  This remains below the peak reported iTunes music rate of 12 million per day in the fall of 2009, but above the more recent rate of 8.5 million per day reported in March.

The download rates for iTunes are reported to have fallen as tiered pricing has been introduced while App download rates continue to increase.

Time to Download 4 Billion Apps: 21 months

Last week’s announcement of “well over” 4 billion apps downloaded came 21 months after the App Store opened on iTunes.  To give a perspective on how fast that is, 4 billion songs took 41 months to sell on the iTunes Music Store.

The graph below shows the last actual data provided on both the App Store and the Music store downloads (circled) plotted from time of launch.

It also shows a curve-fit forecast of each store’s downloads.  If the growth persists, 10 billion apps could be shifted in 28 months post launch, which is around November of this year.

Stop the Presses! RIM Buys own OS Kernel

RIM Buys QNX to Tie Phones to Cars | News & Opinion | PCMag.com.

Seriously, a real operating system. This is their first.

As a (Unix-like real-time) microkernel-based OS, QNX is based on the idea of running most of the OS in the form of a number of small tasks, known as servers. This differs from the more traditional monolithic kernel, in which the operating system is a single very large program composed of a huge number of “parts” with special abilities. In the case of QNX, the use of a microkernel allows users (developers) to turn off any functionality they do not require without having to change the OS itself; instead, those servers are simply not run.

…which is more than can be said for the BlackBerry “OS”.

Source: Wikipedia

Daring Fireball: New iPhone Developer Agreement Bans the Use of Adobe's Flash-to-iPhone Compiler

My reading of this new language is that cross-compilers, such as the Flash-to-iPhone compiler in Adobe’s upcoming Flash Professional CS5 release, are prohibited. This also bans apps compiled using MonoTouch — a tool that compiles C# and .NET apps to the iPhone. It’s unclear what this means for tools like Titanium and PhoneGap, which let developers write JavaScript code that runs in WebKit inside a native iPhone app wrapper. They might be OK. The folks at Appcelerator realize, though, that they might be out of bounds with Titanium. Ansca’s Corona SDK, which lets you write iPhone apps using Lua, strikes me as out of bounds.

via Daring Fireball: New iPhone Developer Agreement Bans the Use of Adobe’s Flash-to-iPhone Compiler.

Nota bene:  Apple will release its own app front end that allows a simpler development environment (than XCode).

Tavis McCourt of Morgan Keegan Predicts iPhone Sales

At the event, CEO Steve Jobs noted that iPhone sales to date now tops 50 million units. Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt points out in a research note that as of the end of December, sales to date were 41.8 million. Ergo, the company sold at least 8.2 million in the March quarter, he concludes.

Source: Barrons

How can you count on these guys for forecasts about the future when they can’t get the past right?  Total iPhones sold as announced by Apple: 42.484 million.  A more reasonable estimate is here.

iAd adds up to a lot of cash

“The average user spends over 30 minutes every day using apps on their phone. If we said we wanted to put an ad up every 3 minutes, that’s 10 ads per device per day. That would be 1b ad opportunities per day.”

This is going to take some time to sink in over at the Googleplex.  By pushing Android, Google removed themselves from this opportunity.  Jobs continues:

“We do not have any plans to become a worldwide ad agency. We tried to buy a company called AdMob, and Google came in and snatched them from us. We bought Quattro instead. They’re teaching us and we’re learning as fast as we can.”

Not to put too fine a point on it, but I did suggest iAd was coming on Dec. 30 of last year:

I think it’s a certainty that Apple will introduce an ad serving platform for the iPhone (and any tablet) in 2010. This will amount to a checkbox that developers will check when submitting their app to the store. Doing so will allow Apple to place ads on the app in return for a check in the mail to the developer for the impressions.

Apple sells 450,000 iPads in 5 days, users download 3.5 million apps

Apple said Thursday that it has shipped over 450,000 iPads since the device went on sale this past Saturday, spurring 3.5 million app downloads for the new tablet device by its earliest adopters.

via AppleInsider | Apple sells 450,000 iPads in 5 days, users download 3.5 million apps.

Jobs also updated with 600,000 downloads of iBooks.  The first day sales of books was 250k, so it’s keeping a bit above 1 book per device.  First day apps was 1 million, so the app attach rate is now 7.8, well above the 3 from day one.  Keep in mind that the iPhone attach rate grew to over 50 so it’s early days to see how iPhone compares to iPad as an app magnet.

Asymco

Asymmetric Competition

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