Seven years after the iPhone was launched, 70% of the US population is using smartphones. Smartphones existed before the iPhone so the category is older than seven years but as far as adoption goes this is nearly the fastest ever. The CD Player reached 55% in seven years and the Boom Box about 62%. If … Continue reading “Late late majority”
iPad sales were unexpectedly slow in Q1. Tim Cook explained it as follows: iPad sales came in at the high end of our expectations, but we realized they were below analysts’ estimates and I would like to proactively address why we think there was a difference. We believe almost all of the difference can be … Continue reading “The iPad discontinuity”
According to ITU data, Internet usage reached about 2.2% penetration in the US (2.2 users per 100 residents) in 1993. The figure in 2012 was 81%. The history of penetration is shown in the following graphs. Similar graphs can be drawn for other countries (data is available for 193 countries/territories.) I chose the following set … Continue reading “On the future of the Internet and everything”
This was initially posted on LinkedIn December 16, 2013. Innovation comes in many forms. Many times innovation is thought of as technological improvement or as invention. We can all cite examples of inventions which turned into industries which re-defined civilization. The steam engine comes to mind but there were many others before and after. Inventing … Continue reading “Bundling and Pricing Innovation”
In the post Seeing What’s Next, I showed how the rate of change of adoption of technology varies with time and asked what might be experienced by present and future generations. It turns out that knowing how what innovations become universal and the speed at which these technologies are replaced can give us an idea … Continue reading “A way to measure one’s life”
Using logistic curves to measure diffusion of innovations is a powerful method of analysis. However there are limits to what can be learned. The methodology helps in understanding how quickly a pervasive technology is adopted. It assumes that the technology “fills all available space” within a market. It therefore also assumes that whatever problems the … Continue reading “How many mobile platforms can a market sustain?”
The latest comScore data shows consistent growth in US smartphone penetration. The rate is now 58.4% of adult consumers who own phones. This is up from 20% only three years ago. The rate of growth remains a remarkable 1.2% per month. That’s 700,000 new-to-smartphone users every week. The historic average over 3 years has been … Continue reading “Measuring Platform Churn”
[The following was originally published on LinkedIn.] The US is in the forefront of smartphone usage. This has not always been the case. Five years ago only 3 percent of US phone users were using a smartphone, lower than the global average. At the time Palm and BlackBerry were the prominent devices in the US while in … Continue reading “The Crucible of the Phone Market”
Matteo Fumagalli is a student of economics at University of Insubria, Italy. He is writing a thesis for a bachelor’s degree analyzing the smartphone industry. He asked me to answer the following questions: -First question is about you. Why did you found Asymco? I founded the company to develop software, mainly apps. I began writing … Continue reading “An interview with Matteo Fumagalli”
The US has reached 50% smartphone penetration. comScore data shows July penetration at 48.8% and a monthly growth in penetration of nearly 2 percentage points. Given the rate of growth, it’s nearly certain that we’ve crossed 50% in August. The historic growth is shown below: The platforms making up the smartphone market in the US … Continue reading “Positioning Lumia”
