Tag: AAPL

Apple’s ASPs have been holding quite steady.  Gains in the iPod are offset by losses in the Mac. Here are the current ASPs.

• iPhone $622.15 (includes accessories)
• Mac $1,278
• iPod $171

A historic perspective for ASP growth is shown in the graphs below:

Apple’s overall gross margin reached 41.67%, the second highest ever.  The highest was 41.82% last Fall.  This should not come as a surprise as the iPhone continues to make up an increasingly larger percent of Apple’s total sales.  The gross margin on the iPhone continues to be well above all its other product lines (except for software).

Although Apple does not provide product line GM break-out, some intelligent guessing can be made.  Here are my estimates:

• iPhone 59%
• Mac 27%
• iPod 28%
• iTunes 10%
• Periph 45%
• Software 80%

A historic perspective for gross growth (iTunes, Peripheral and Software sales growth) is shown in the graph below.

Each of Apple’s individual business lines is profitable.  Last quarter only the iPod experienced negative year-on-year unit growth but still generated a positive sales growth due to higher ASP.

Here is the list of each product line and its y/y sales growth:

Unit Growth, Sales Growth

• iPhone 131%, 124%
• Mac 33%, 27%
• iPod -1%, 12%
• iTunes n/a, 27%
• Periph n/a, 32%
• Software n/a, 1%

Overall sales grew 49%.

A historic perspective for unit growth (iTunes, Peripheral and Software sales growth) is shown in the graph below.

Apple’s latest earnings showed growth of nearly 90% (following a nearly 50% growth the previous quarter.)

Normally, growth like this is rewarded with a significant P/E ratio of 30 to 40.  Apple enjoyed P/E of 50 as recently as 2007.  However Apple’s P/E ratio dropped to about 22 after earnings.

Although higher than during the worst of the recession, this low P/E either reflects continuing pessimism in the overall sustainability of the economy or a continuing discounting of Apple’s potential growth.

Excluding the nearly $45/share cash and looking at a forward twelve months earnings of 15, the forward P/E is an almost embarrassing 14.

It’s possible that after a few quarters of above 50% growth Apple’s P/E and hence its valuation will return to more normal (PEG ~1.0) levels.  A P/E of 30 at today’s trailing 12 months earnings would put the stock above $350/share.

via Deagol’s AAPL Model: Apple beats up everyone.

Average errors:

11.6%  Professionals

7.7%  Amateurs

—–  —————————————

51.4%  Pros error increase % on amateurs

Note: Apple beat every estimate from every analyst, amateur or professional.  More when we do the numbers.

Deagol estimates 12,594 2.77

via Deagol’s AAPL Model: Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates.

In the spirit of Deagol and Turley Muller here are my estimates for the quarter:

3mo ending Mar-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
——————-   ——-   ——
Apple guidance         11,200     2.12
Analysts consensus     11,960     2.44
asymco estimates 12,357 2.60

asymco Revenue breakdown:
Mac        3,918 ( 3.01M @ $1,300)
iPhone     4,500 ( 7.50M @ $  600)
iPod       1,652 (11.00M @ $  150)
Music      1,206
Software     689
Periph       393
——–  ——
Total     12,357